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Yesterday I wrote about the president’s power to nominate people for important positions in government. Today we get the news that Justice David Souter will be retiring. (This is doubly convenient as the remaining federalist papers deal with the judicial branch of our government.) I don’t intend to speculate on who the president will nominate but there are a few things we can learn from this confirmation hearing.
During the 2004 election cycle there were a number of conservatives talking up the importance of re-electing Bush because of the probability that at least one justice would be nominated in the next four years. Obama himself said last fall that the selection of a new justice would be “one of the most consequential decisions of the next president.” One difference between Obama and Bush in relation to the opportunity to make a supreme court nomination is that Obama will have a Senate majority large enough to prevent a filibuster (assuming that Al Franken is seated from Minnesota). This means that Obama may not feel any need to moderate his choice as Bush knew that he must. Bush knew that he could not nominate anyone who was too conservative for the Senate. Obama will know that there is virtually nobody with any qualification who is too liberal for this Senate.
Assuming that this confirmation goes smoothly and that the selection proves to be reliably liberal (the new justice can always surprise people on that score), I think we might know what to expect in the next few years in the Supreme Court. The most senior justice, Justice John Paul Stevens, is on the liberal side of the court and is 89 years old. If there is a fresh liberal justice from our new president and a solidly Democratic senate in place I would be very surprised if he did not choose to retire before 2012 (or even before the 2010 elections). I would also not be surprised to see Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg choose to retire. Like Justice Stevens she is on the liberal side of the court and while she is not the next most senior justice she is the second oldest at 76 and might want to ensure that her replacement is also liberal (especially if at least one other justice is a woman by then) before there is a chance of electing a Republican president or having Democrats lose any seats in the Senate.
2 replies on “Judicial Appointment”
From today’s perspective (admittedly limited), it hardly seems that the Democrats could lose senate seats in 2010. It is more likely that they will pick up at least two, and perhaps even more.
Political wonk Michael Barone is very good at connecting dots that others have difficulty seeing. Due to a significant demographic shift that is underway, he says that the Democratic surge will still be on the upswing in 2010 (and 2012), even if Pres. Obama faces challenges that harm his popularity.
It is not the liberal justices you have to worry about Pres. Obama replacing, although, he will probably replace them with even more liberal justices. It is the possibility of replacing conservative justices or swing justice Kennedy that is ambivalent about where he stands but has been sliding leftward for years. None of these men will likely retire of their own will before 2013, but some may need to retire during the next presidential term.
I agree on all points. I was limiting my speculation to what I personally felt confident of. I think that the conservative justices are likely to stay put if possible until a Republican president and/or senate is in place. Justice Kennedy is the big unknown in the long-term equation.