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By Monday afternoon this is, of course, old news but if you visited here you must have been at least marginally interested in my opinion on the fallout from Huntsman being tapped to become the ambassador to China. First of all, I think that Bob Bernick captured the essence of the Big Utah Political Picture especially in the following sections:
Now 2010 in Utah is wide open.
Now there is an open governor’s race with a one-year incumbent . . .
There is also U.S. Sen. Bob Bennett, R-Utah, facing an intra-party challenger {or two}.
Adding to the mix will be the off-cycle governor’s race in 2010. Because Huntsman is leaving so early in his second term, Herbert must run again in 2010, the eventual winner serving only two years before he or she must run again in 2012.
That puts next year’s governor’s race off schedule — and incumbents like Attorney General Mark Shurtleff can seek the higher office without having to give up his current post. That’s also the case for Democrats Corroon and Salt Lake City Mayor Ralph Becker — all who can run for governor without risking their current seats.
And there’s a few state senators who just won re-election to their four-year seats in 2008 and so can run for governor or U.S. Senate next year without risking their current offices, as well.
. . .
2010 is suddenly a once-in-a-generation opportunity for many current and wanna-be Utah politicians.
So there’s the big picture. We’ll be holding two elections for Governor by 2012 and that Governor’s seat in 2010 added to Bennett’s seat in the Senate makes for a lot of opportunities for those (especially senators) who are not facing re-election in 2010 to take a shot at moving up in Utah politics.
Now for my opinion on the Huntsman move in particular.
In my very first political blog post I said of Huntsman:
I have spent months looking at everything I could find on the candidates and so far as I can tell the least promising republican candidate just won the republican primary
In all fairness I have to say that Huntsman exceeded my expectations as a Governor (which is why I suggested that he would be an improvement over Hatch in 2012). I like him better for some of the reasons that others dislike him, and dislike him for some of the reasons that others dislike him. Plus I still dislike him for most of the reasons I didn’t like him to begin with. So you can safely guess that I’m not sad to see him leaving. In fact, I believe that he is very well qualified to be our ambassador to China and I have high hopes that he will fill that post well.
Beyond being not sad to see Huntsman leaving I am very happy that he will be vacating the Governors seat officially because it’s been months since he left me with the impression that he was doing any more there than keeping the seat warm. If there is any way to leverage this political confusion to oust Bennett from his seat in 2010 so much the better but simply based on the fact that Huntsman had already moved on mentally from his position as governor I happily wish him well in his future endeavors and hope that Herbert and our future governors spend the bulk of their time in office proving that they are working for Utah more than for their personal political futures.
5 replies on “The Huntsman News”
It seems like lately he’s been his own biggest cheerleader. Perhaps some of his rather bizarre comments about homosexual marriage have been an effort to get himself noticed for the China Ambassador spot.
At any rate, I think he’ll actually make a perfect ambassador to China. It will be exciting to see what Gary Herbert has to offer in the next year. But Bob Bernick is right–the Utah political scene has just been blown wide open.
I had that same thought flit through my head that some of his “stances” are more a matter of positioning for his future than they were real positions of personal conviction.
As for Herbert – I’m not sure whether he should feel fortunate to get some incumbency under his belt, or disappointed that he will have to run twice in two years for the office has has wanted for years.
Frank,
Which comments about homosexual marriage has Huntsman made do you think are bizarre? All he has done is express support for civil unions. What is so bizarre about that?
I thought that what Pignanelli & Webb had to say in their Sunday column was instructive (see http://www.deseretnews.com/article/print/705304698/Huntsmans-departure-opening-many-doors.html ). “Huntsman obviously won’t seek the GOP nomination in 2012. Many suggest this may set him up for 2016. But spending several years on the other side of the planet will diminish his ability to transform the Republican Party. Therefore, do not be surprised if Huntsman returns from China … as a Democrat.”
I somewhat disagree with Bernick. This development makes the candidacy of many possible for 2010, but many of those people will ultimately fail to become serious contenders. It takes a lot of organization and money to run a gubernatorial campaign. While some of the people Bernick mentions have significant constituencies and organizations, most of these are in very limited areas. While Herbert is stronger in Utah County than anywhere else, he has already built many of the alliances and gained much of the support statewide that will be necessary to mount a serious campaign in 2010. Few of the people Bernick mentions will be able to muster the necessary money or people.
Whoever wins in 2010 will be a natural shoo-in for 2012 unless they mess up badly.
My gut feeling seems to agree with you. The races might be wide open in 2010 but Herbert is the early favorite and whoever wins in 2010 (Herbert or otherwise) will be heavily favored in 2012.
I do think that Bernick is right that being in China will make it harder for Huntsman to influence the Republican party, but I’m not ready to expect him to switch parties by the time he returns. Being the ambassador to China has potential to raise his profile and future prospects even within the party.