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National

Harry Reid the Insomniac


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“Senator” Reid must suffer from insomnia to schedule a vote at 1:00 AM on a Monday to torture his fellow members of the Senate as they vote on a bill to torture their constituents throughout America. That is how Harry Reid fits the definition of “insomniac” as a noun.

The definition of “insomniac” as an adjective also fits because his actions will cause a lot of sleepless nights among people who previously believed they had some freedoms left in this country. Even more dangerously, every lawyer and CEO in the health care industry will undoubtedly suffer from insomnia as they try to figure out how to profit from the 2700 page bill that has not even been released online yet as far as I can find (I can only see the “original” 2074 page version of the bill).

I understand the urgency of meeting an artificial deadline on Christmas day for a bill that won’t take effect for another 4 years but I wonder why this could not have waited another 6 or 8 hours until a decent time for a vote. I’m always distrustful of a fast moving legislative body but more than any other rushed vote this move is reminiscent of some other midnight political proceedings that were driven by a desire for power.

Categories
National

GOP Sheep with No Shepherd


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Yet Another Fire Dog Lake post led me to this Progressive Change Campaign Committee poll. My interest in the poll focused on the results of two questions:

Would you favor or oppose a health care bill that does NOT include a public health insurance option and does NOT expand Medicare, but DOES require all Americans to get health insurance?

and

Would you favor or oppose a health care bill that does NOT include a public health insurance option and does NOT expand Medicare and does NOT require all Americans to buy health insurance — but DOES provide significant subsidies to low- and middle-income families to help them buy insurance?

I was specifically interested to compare the Republican responses to these two questions. The first question offers essentially what the health care bill has been boiling down to – a mandate with no public option or alternative. The second offers no mandate, no public option or alternative, but offers subsidies for those who cannot afford insurance. Republican leaders have been fighting against the first option openly without really talking about the second possibility. The results in the republican response are interesting. Those opposed to either option were virtually identical (61% and 60% respectively). Those who were undecided nearly doubled from the first question to the second because they had not been told what to think, had never considered the possibility themselves, and could not think on their feet. Because of that, the number who favored the first question – which is clearly the worst of the two – was 5 points higher than those who favored the second.

This party needs shepherds who know where to lead rather than goats who know only to oppose.

Categories
culture National

Missing the Boat


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In a comment over at KVNU’s For The People blog Craig concluded that if I was right in my position about health care it would mean that basically everyone had been missing the boat on this issue. My response to Craig was that I honestly believe that this current reform debate is missing the boat on what reforms we need.

Meanwhile, over at Fire Dog Lake (again) I find another insightful post from a staunch liberal, this time it’s from Jane Hamsher (yesterday it was Jon Walker) who is talking about what she calls the left/right populist wrap around.

There is an enormous, rising tide of populism that crosses party lines in objection to the Senate bill. We opposed the bank bailouts, the AIG bonuses, the lack of transparency about the Federal Reserve, “bailout” Ben Bernanke, and the way the Democrats have used their power to sell the country’s resources to secure their own personal advantage, just as the libertarians have. In fact, we’ve worked together with them to oppose these things. What we agree on: both parties are working against the interests of the public, the only difference is in the messaging. (emphasis added)

This is another example of the media missing the boat. They play everything as Left vs Right. They promote the notion that anything which angers both the radical right and the radical left must be pretty good policy – that’s their definition of centrist. In contrast, Ms. Hamsher pits the left/right populist wrap around against the beltway insiders – or as some of my commenters have called them, the corporatists.

Being able to unite the left wing and the right wing in opposition to a policy does not make that a good policy. After all, the German Fascists were able to unite the American Capitalists and the Soviet Communists in opposition against them, but you won’t here anyone (except neo-nazis) arguing that the German Fascists were good because of that.

We’ve had a perfect example of that here recently. I consider myself to be more conservative than the “conservatives” in Congress. Charles considers himself to be more liberal than the “liberals” in Congress. We disagree on many issues, but we’d both like to see a government that represented the people of the United States. I don’t see how it can be argued that Congress is getting it right when I want to see my Republican senator defeated and have him replaced with a real Conservative and Charles want to see his Democratic senator defeated and have her replaced with a real Liberal. (Excuse me for putting words into your mouth Charles.)

There is a disconnect between the roots of representative government and the tree of elected officers. Anyone who thinks that is a positive sign or healthy in any way is definitely missing the boat.

P.S. Having two hits in two days means I will now be following Fire Dog Lake rather than waiting for others to point out their latest articles.

Categories
National

No Public Option, No Mandate


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Over at Fire Dog Lake, Jon Walker challenges those with the “we can fix it later” mentality (which may or may not include enough senators to pass this bill) to hold the individual mandate out of the bill as a hostage to ensure that Congress will have leverage to come back and replace all the things they have compromised away in this bill already.

Progressives should make the rallying cry of “no public option, no mandate” an unmovable demand, now and in the future. Progressives in Congress should refuse to support the individual mandate until it is accompanied by the government guarantee of a decent, cost-effective public health insurance option.

To me that sounds like killing two birds with one stone – we could get a bill without a public option as the Republicans have worked so hard to remove already and we could get a bill without an individual mandate which is the most serious infraction contained in the bill (more serious than the public option ever was).

I would be perfectly content, if the bill passes now without either of those provisions, to never come back and “fix the bill” (at least the way he is thinking of it). But I’d rather gain a temporary victory against the individual mandate and have to come fight against it again in the future, than have the individual mandate pass and face the prospect of having to try and reverse it later.

Categories
National

Howard Dean is Right


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Few people would predict that I would agree with Howard Dean as often as I do, fewer still should be at all surprised that I agree with him when he says of the Health Care Bill:

This is essentially the collapse of health care reform in the United States Senate. Honestly, the best thing to do right now is kill the Senate bill.

Then again, I also agree with President Obama when he said:

the federal government “will go bankrupt” if Congress does not pass a health care bill

Of course we begin to disagree from there because I’m confident that we will go bankrupt at least as fast with his health care bill (any version of it) as we will if we do nothing. We need reform, but we don’t need this reform. Once again I agree with Howard Dean’s take on the cost issue:

He said he also doesn’t see cost-control measures but, rather “a whole bunch of bureaucracies and a lot of promises.”

While we disagree with what health care reform this nation needs I was dismayed by the truth pointed out by Chris Cillizza as he explained why he feels confident that despite all the wrangling, Congress will pass a health reform bill:

The broad strategy adopted by the White House toward health care is based on a single fundamental belief: coming out of this extended fight with nothing to show for it amounts to a political disaster not just for the President but for congressional Democrats as well.

“It’s a huge problem if nothing gets passed,” said one senior Democratic strategist. “Huge.”

Howard Dean is right about the dangers of that strategy:

We’ve gotten to this stage … in Washington where passing any bill is a victory, and that’s the problem. Decisions are being about the long-term future of this country for short-term political reasons, and that’s never a good sign.

I even agree with Howard Dean that there are some good elements in the current Health Care Reform bill. At least, I agree with him if Section 9002 is still in the bill. (As an aside, when did they return to the term “health care reform” from the more accurate “health insurance reform” that they had begun using earlier this year?)

I still contend that the only proper way forward on health care reform (and the only possible way forward when debate over this bill finally ends – regardless of the outcome) is to stop trying for some sweeping omnibus overhaul bill and pass individual pieces of legislation to take baby steps forward. If this bill passes the very first baby step forward will have to be the repeal of the individual mandate.

Categories
culture National

Medical Cultures


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[quote]I have called David Goldhill’s How American Health Care Killed My Father a must-read for anyone who wants to speak up in the health care debate. The New Yorker also has a must-read article on the issue called The Cost Conundrum. In that article we are introduced to the town of McAllen, Texas where Medicare spends much higher than average amounts per capita than the national average ($15000 vs $8000) in an area with much lower than average per capita income($12000 vs $21500) and cost of living. Atul Gawande, himself an associate professor of surgery at Harvard Medical School, introduces us to the town and begins an attempt to discover why the costs of health care are so high in McAllen.

Are the people there less healthy? No, they have higher rates of some health conditions than average and lower rates than average of other conditions. Overall health fails to explain the cost differential.

Was the quality of health care being provided higher than average? While they were not lacking for available medical technology or facilities the quality of care was, once again, nothing unusual.

McAllen costs Medicare seven thousand dollars more per person each year than does the average city in America. But not, so far as one can tell, because it’s delivering better health care.

Gawande went to dinner with some McAllen doctors and showed them the data on health care costs in McAllen:

Some were dubious when I told them that McAllen was the country’s most expensive place for health care. I gave them the spending data from Medicare. In 1992, in the McAllen market, the average cost per Medicare enrollee was $4,891, almost exactly the national average. But since then, year after year, McAllen’s health costs have grown faster than any other market in the country, ultimately soaring by more than ten thousand dollars per person.

He then asked them why they thought the care was so costly there. One suggested the cost of malpractice insurance but then they admitted that since Texas had passed caps on malpractice lawsuits they had virtually no lawsuits to drive up the cost of care.

Finally a general surgeon among the dinner party declared that the issue in McAllen was overutilization.

Everyone agreed that something fundamental had changed since the days when health-care costs in McAllen were the same as those in El Paso and elsewhere. Yes, they had more technology. “But young doctors don’t think anymore,” the family physician said.

Anecdotal evidence and agreement is fine, but Gawande went in search of more concrete evidence.

To determine whether overuse of medical care was really the problem in McAllen, I turned to Jonathan Skinner, an economist at Dartmouth’s Institute for Health Policy and Clinical Practice . . . I also turned to two private firms—D2Hawkeye, an independent company, and Ingenix, UnitedHealthcare’s data-analysis company—to analyze commercial insurance data for McAllen. The answer was yes. Compared with patients in El Paso and nationwide, patients in McAllen got more of pretty much everything—more diagnostic testing, more hospital treatment, more surgery, more home care.

Having identified the cause of the high costs the search was on for an explanation of why there was so much overutilization. The answer was in the culture of the medical practitioners in McAllen – they were very profit oriented rather than results oriented. I believe the one place that Gawande’s article falls short is that he stopped with exploring the cultures among the medical community and failed to examine whether the general community culture in McAllen helped to foster that inefficient mindset among the medical practitioners in the area. I’m willing to bet that such a short-sighted culture in the medical community might not need encouragement from the local culture, but could not survive if the local culture were one that actively discouraged a similar outlook in the community at large.

Talking to a surgeon from McAllen, Gawande concludes that whether we have a public option, single payer, or private health insurance will not matter if the culture in McAllen continues to become more common as it has been doing.

In contrast to McAllen, Gawande explores the cultures in the Mayo Clinic and the Medical community of Grand Junction, Colorado and finds that both of these low-cost, high-quality health care systems took very different approaches to each arrive at “accountable-care {organizations} . . . {where} leading doctors and the hospital system adopted measures to blunt harmful financial incentives  {and} took collective responsibility for improving the sum total of patient care.” He also lists four other high-quality low-cost health care systems each of which has a culture of accountable care – the Geisinger Health System, the Marshfield Clinic, Intermountain Healthcare, and Kaiser Permanente.

Whatever approach Congress tries to take to reform our health care system they and the American people need to understand that we cannot successfully plant a Health Care tree. The only workable approach will be to plant Health Care seed and help it to grow into a health new health care system.

Categories
National

A New Federal Role in Economic Recovery


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My post on fundamental assumptions generated some good discussion which began waxing economic in flavor. As part of that discussion I had a new idea about a more reasonable approach the federal government could take to soften economic hard times without outright manipulating our expectations of reality as they do now.

I should start by clarifying my perspective on what the federal government does and what is economically realistic. Economic realism insists that we recognize the inevitability of economic downturns. They are going to happen. Unfortunately the assumption at the federal level seems to be that we must strive for perpetual economic growth – we might tolerate one or two quarters of a mild contraction but anything beyond that is unacceptable. As proven by our significant and now two year old recession sometimes the economy needs to undergo a much harsher adjustment – especially after the government has been pumping the supposedly healthy market with perpetual stimulus for years. (I know, they have not called anything they did stimulus until the stimulus bill in early 2008.)

Personally I think a better approach to the federal government smoothing the rough spots out would be to establish a baseline – let’s say 5% unemployment – where any state meeting that baseline would not receive any federal economic assistance to combat unemployment. Then they would look a the spread between the unemployment rate of various states and be allowed to give economic aid to any state with at least 5% higher unemployment than the state with the lowest unemployment. The upper limit of that aid would be equal to 1/3 of the difference in unemployment between the higher of 5% and the unemployment rate of the state with the lowest unemployment with the limitation that government aid cannot help one state leapfrog another. Let’s show what that would mean with current (October 2009) numbers.

The state with the lowest unemployment is North Dakota at 4.2% so any state with more than 9.2% unemployment could get aid from the federal government to help lower their unemployment. For the October 2009 numbers that would mean that only 21 states could get any federal assistance rather than having the federal government trying to jump start the economies of all 50 states. Of those 21 states Arizona, Missouri, and Washington (at 9.3% unemployment) could receive aid equal to 0.3% of their respective economies (they would not be allowed to leapfrog Idaho and new York which have 9% unemployment and cannot receive this federal aid because they are within 5% unemployment of North Dakota’s unemployment rate). In fact, 12 of the 21 states would receive enough aid to bring them equal to the 9% unemployment rate of Idaho and New York because that would be less than 1/3 of the difference between their actual unemployment rates and the magical 5% unemployment. At the other end of the scale Michigan, with the highest unemployment would have their rate cut below 12% from their current 15.1%.

If every state had unemployment rates over 5% the new benchmark would be the lowest unemployment rate of any state. If we imagine that lowest unemployment rate was 6.5% (adjusting all states up to 6.5% and leaving states with higher unemployment where they are) only states with unemployment over 11.5% would receive aid, six states in all, and only Michigan would get the full 1/3 of the difference between their rate and the base rate of 6.5% (leaving them with 12.2% unemployment).

If all states were below 5% unemployment or if they were all clustered between 3.5% and 8.5% unemployment then the federal government would not give unemployment assistance to any of the states. If anyone is curious to see them, I have all my numbers in a spreadsheet that you can download.

The fact is that of the economy of the entire nation is slumping then no government program can provide a solid foundation to real economic growth – all it can do is produce the illusion of economic stability. Real economic growth can only be build on fundamental economic change, not on the illusion of stability provided by printing money and manipulating interest rates. While committed free marketers would likely hate my proposal just like they hate the current government intrusions in the economy and while those who don’t object to socialism will find my suggestions very harsh on downtrodden regions of the nation, I think that my idea is much better at providing a cushion for the hardest hit areas while allowing the economy to shrink or grow towards whatever the realities of our national economy are which the government tries so hard to mask right now as if our perceptions were the only economic reality worth considering.

Categories
National

A Short-Term Vision of “Purity”


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photo credit: David Reeves

It’s never safe to focus so much on the present that we lose sight of the future. This seems to be what is happening with the push by some to codify a purity test within the GOP. If you have not heard about this I would sum it up like so – there is a resolution before the Republican National Committee which would prevent them from giving financial backing to a candidate that did not support at least 7 of the following ten principles:

(1) We support smaller government, smaller national debt, lower deficits and lower taxes by opposing bills like Obama’s “stimulus” bill;

(2) We support market-based health care reform and oppose Obama-style government run health care;

(3) We support market-based energy reforms by opposing cap and trade legislation;

(4) We support workers’ right to secret ballot by opposing card check;

(5) We support legal immigration and assimilation into American society by opposing amnesty for illegal immigrants;

(6) We support victory in Iraq and Afghanistan by supporting military-recommended troop surges;

(7) We support containment of Iran and North Korea, particularly effective action to eliminate their nuclear weapons threat;

(8) We support retention of the Defense of Marriage Act;

(9) We support protecting the lives of vulnerable persons by opposing health care rationing and denial of health care and government funding of abortion; and

(10) We support the right to keep and bear arms by opposing government restrictions on gun ownership.

I am amazed that the people backing this proposal do not see how short-sighted this effort is. I believe that their efforts are sincere, but sorely misguided, as they seek to define the GOP in a way that is more concrete than “not the democrats.”

Without going into specifics I am basically in favor of principles such as those outlined above, and the fact that the resolution only requires 70% support for those principles to receive party support is proof that they are not trying to weed all but the staunchest conservatives from the party (especially since they do not specify any subset of the principles which demands 100% conformity).

The shortsightedness is evident in the specific references such as “Obama’s ‘stimulus’ bill,”, “Obama-style government run health care, ” and “victory in Iraq and Afghanistan” (or maybe they are just admitting that this is a perpetual project).

I believe that there is value in talking about what defined ideological purity within the party – we certainly need to have some idea about who we are in order to be able to identify what the party has to offer voters but this particular proposal is significantly too blunt an instrument to benefit the party. Without any extended study of exactly the best way forward for the party I have a few suggestions, based on the existing proposal, for an approach that would be more likely to make things better rather than worse.

Categories
culture National State

Term Limits for All


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One year ago today I pointed out that the subject of term limits becomes popular after an election. Like clockwork it came up again this year. Jim DeMint jumped the gun a bit by announcing three weeks ago that he would introduce a term limit amendment. Yesterday he introduced the bill and today I read an opinion by Mark Tapscott on why he thinks it will actually happen this time.

In previous posts on the subject we have usually had some good discussions, but they tend to be the same from year to year. I’ll summarize the previous discussions in hopes that we can start a step or two down the road and have a more advanced discussion by doing so.

The discussion  that we usually have boils down to the fact that term limits deal more with a symptom of our broken system rather than a cause but that treating that symptom might help to promote the curing of some of the underlying causes. Those who oppose term limits often argue that the people should be free to keep their same representatives as long as they want – but that thinking seems to obscure the fact that the position should always be greater than the person holding it and that society and the political system benefits from regular turnover so that we can’t mistakenly think that the junior senate seat from Utah somehow belongs to Bob Bennett, or that the senior senate seat from Massachusetts was some inalienable right for Ted Kennedy until his death.

Categories
National

Decision Time – GOP or ATTAP


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photo credit: Pat Rioux

When I learned that Dede Scozzafava dropped out of the NY-23 race, and even more when I learned that when she dropped out she endorsed the Democratic candidate rather than the Conservative candidate, it really got me thinking about what parties are supposed to be. That endorsement would indicate that the GOP establishment in that district is closer to the Democrats than it is to the Conservatives (or else Ms. Scozzafava is playing sour grapes, but somehow I don’t think that’s the explanation). In theory there’s nothing wrong with being closer to Democrats than Conservatives but in practice it depends on what the GOP stands for – which is the question currently raging within the party membership.

Political parties, rightly and of necessity, are coalitions of voters. In theory those voters share some political views in common in order to participate in the coalition. If that is the case then it must be accepted that some parties will have no presence in some locations because in some locations there will be no voters who share the views belonging to a particular party. I’m not suggesting that a place as large as a state would be devoid of voters for any significant party, but individual districts, cities, or precincts might easily be split more between the Green party and the Democrats or between the GOP and the Constitution party than they are between the Democrats and the GOP – assuming that the GOP and the Democratic party each have some core values politically.