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National politics

Who can win?

For the second time today I need to get something published before an approaching deadline. This time it is my take on the chances that the various Democratic candidates have of getting the nomination. I want to make sure that I publish this before we get more data from voters voting.

If I had written this earlier there would have been a couple more candidates considered – even with my restriction that I am only covering candidates who have any potential path to the nomination. Many but not all of those who have already dropped out never had any path. Even today there is Tom Steyer who has not dropped out but who, despite his wealth, has no path to the nomination.

For the sake of fairness I will cover the candidates in alphabetical order by last name. I will offer my take on what they would need to win the nomination and my opinion on what they should do based on what happens on Super Tuesday.

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culture Local politics State

Thoughts on Caucus System Reform

Curt Bentley has an excellent post in which he discusses the issue of reforming the caucus system. I really appreciate the methodical approach he has taken to examine the issue. I completely agree with each of his guiding principles and while I suspect I am more comfortable with the caucus system in its current form than he seems to be, I also want to see it strengthened through some reforms that will make it better at promoting voter participation and issue-centric campaigns. I agree with his assessment of what the caucus system does well and with his conclusion that dumping the caucus system entirely is not the way to go. As for his assessment of what the caucus system doesn’t do well, I have some thoughts I’d like to share and I sincerely hope that Curt and others will share their feedback on those thoughts.

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Local politics State

Strengthening Our Caucus System

Caucus meeting
Image by Cherie Priest

I really appreciated Paul Mero’s take on efforts to change our caucus and convention system. Unlike Mr. Mero, I’m not well enough connected to be invited to take part in private meetings regarding how to change Utah’s caucus and convention system. On that particular issue that is the largest of our differences.

Like Mr. Mero I have been annoyed at the misinformation that I have seen spread by and among delegates with extreme positions on a number of issues – HB 166 among them. Like Mr. Mero, I have tried to pay attention to the efforts to change the caucus/convention system but I have not found those proposed changes to warrant any particular support from me. The core of where my views align with those expressed by Mr. Mero are summed up in the following quote:

Yes, I’m sure some delegates have stated that they don’t want increased participation in the political process. But, to be fair, most of those voices are more concerned about how blissfully ignorant most Utahns are about the world around them than those voices are about consuming political power. So, yes, these delegates do believe they are better informed and for good reason – most of them are! Not all of them have the right answers, for sure. But it’s a bit disingenuous of my friend to chastise any serious citizen for wanting her candidate to be elected or her policy to become law – for heaven’s sake, that’s exactly what everyone wants!…

If reformers want their candidates elected to office, they should make a case that appeals to the most responsible citizens who take time to engage in a democratic process that has served this state since its founding.

Categories
State

A Fresh Face in Congress

I really don’t mind so much if the voters in Utah always choose Republicans to represent them in Congress so long as they replace at least one incumbent on a regular basis (I’d say at least one new face every other election cycle). For that reason, if for no other, I was happy to hear that Jason Chaffetz ousted Chris Cannon in the Republican primary yesterday. District 3 will have a new face and we are guaranteed to have another new face by 2012 with the addition of District 4.

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State

Republican Primary – State Treasurer

Today I am hoping that Republican primary voters show that they can see through party connections to select a candidate who might actually be qualified for the office of State Treasurer by selecting Richard Ellis to represent the party on the November ballot.

There are other races where I have a preference, but no others that I could vote in.

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National

Primary Season is Finally Over

With the official end of the primary season I can finally end my self-imposed ban on posting about the primaries. Of course Maureen Dowd has already said everything that needs to be said about the current situation. So there are three options for my vote in November (in order of my preference):

  1. Obama keeps his promise to work out a deal with the republican nominee to stick with public financing for the general election and I vote for Obama.
  2. Obama breaks his promise on public financing but does not put Clinton on the ticket and I am free to vote for someone else.
  3. Obama takes Clinton on as his running-mate (which would almost certainly include opting out of public financing) and I vote for McCain (even McCain would have a better chance at uniting the country that Obama with Clinton on the ticket).

I did not start out in the Anyone But Clinton (ABC) camp but these last two months of the primary campaign have convinced me that ABC is the best course for this country.

I admit that it’s very easy for me to announce how I would vote my conscience far in advance because no matter what I do my vote in the Electoral College is 5 votes for McCain – like it or not.

Categories
Local

Making Logical Rules

I’m sure that Leaders of the Utah County Republican Party hoped that their policy reversal would put this stupid move on delegate email distribution behind them. They have done the right thing now and released the delegate email lists to all Republican candidates but their excuse for the original action lies somewhere between lame and pathetic.

Monnahan had promised delegates she would keep their e-mail addresses private. At the caucus meetings, leaders declared the e-mail lists would be used only for internal party business.

That was a new policy. The party had provided delegate e-mail addresses to candidates in the past. Two longtime legislative district chairmen forgot the new rule when they got the delegate e-mail lists and handed them over to the Republican candidates in their district.

I will give them the benefit of the doubt and accept it as lame, but the cynic in me still holds out the possibility that it was a pathetic excuse for an underhanded attempt to swamp the challengers in the Republican primary.

Next time they want to try to save the delegates from unwanted solicitations they should write a policy that goes something like this:

  • If you are a delegate to the county convention your email address will only be given to candidates you will be choosing among at the county convention, and it will not be passed to the state party by us. If you are elected as a state delegate we will pass your email address to the state party, but not to the RNC.
  • We trust our candidates not to engage in shady practices against faithful party members whose votes they are trying to win, and we trust our delegates to be smart enough to recognize when a candidate is not fit to represent our party.
Categories
National

The “Ohio” Plan

With many people arguing that the primary election system needs to change there have been a variety of suggestions made. The “Ohio” plan, being considered by the Republican Party, is that first one officially being considered by either of the major parties (first so far as I am aware). The plan incorporates some of the basic ideas of the Rotating Regionals idea that was being promoted by the National Association of Secretaries of State. Essentially the plan would preserve the first 4 states position in the front of the calendar (Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada, and South Carolina). Then, at three week intervals there would be a group of small states (total of 50 electoral votes between them) and then three vaguely regional clusters of states would rotate in the next three primary dates. The three “regional” groups are

    • Alabama, Arkansas, Colorado, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maryland, Minnesota, Mississippi, Missouri, Oklahoma, Oregon, Texas, Wisconsin, Utah, and Washington
    • Arizona, California, Connecticut, Indiana, Massachusetts, New Jersey, North Carolina, Tennessee, and Virginia
    • Florida, Georgia, Illinois, Michigan, New York, Ohio, and Pennsylvania
    • Leaving the small states group as -Alaska, Delaware, Hawaii, Idaho, Maine, Montana, Nebraska, New Mexico, North Dakota, Rhode Island, South Dakota, Vermont, West Virginia, Wyoming, and non states like D.C. and Guam

The process would take 3 months.

Now I am looking for answers to two questions:

  1. Is this a good way to organize the primary process (should the Democratic Party consider a similar approach when they finally conclude their primary this year)?
  2. Is it better to proceed with this plan that seems politically feasible rather than continue the search for a more perfect approach?
Categories
National

Sitting Out the Final Period

Seeing all the recent commentary on the Democratic Primary contest I have seen the pattern of less and less substantive discussion and more and more trash talk (by trash talk I’m not referring to the tone of the “discussion” but rather the way that it looks just like trash talk in sports – it has nothing to do about athletic ability and everything to do with getting in your opponent’s head).

Democrats have been saying for most of the primary season that they were thrilled to have such a large slate of well qualified candidates. Now that their contest has been narrowed to two candidates and no room for substantive discussion I’ve decided to quit paying attention to the primaries. Once we get into the general election I’m sure I’ll have some opinions to offer on the candidates, the issues, and the election process. Until then – I’ll focus on more local politics.

Categories
National

Connecting Clinton with Romney

I’m sure that title sounds like a kind of heresy here in Utah, but I can’t help noticing in the last week that the supporters of Hillary Clinton are sounding very much like the supporters of Mitt Romney were sounding after the Florida primary (myself included). Unless they turn out to be less mistaken about the upcoming primaries than I was about February 5th they will soon have to adjust to the new reality in the Democratic party.