Categories
General

A Question to Ponder


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I really did not need to focus on any serious topics today (or yesterday for that matter – notice the lack of a post) so I have to thank my brother for providing a humorous but thought provoking question on Facebook last night. I thought that the question deserved to be freed from the walled garden of Facebook so I thought I’d share it here:

If China decided to call America’s debt today, which state would {President Obama} sell to make ends meet?

California received some votes as well as Texas, North Dakota, and non-states such as Guam. What do other people think (recognizing that this is entirely not realistic no matter which state anyone suggests)?

Categories
National

The Paradox of Government


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Paradox of Thrift
Paradox of Thrift

Today I read Paul Krugman writing about the paradox of thrift. As is often the case, I found it interesting to read and to notice the assumptions that Krugman bases his positions on. While anyone can go read what he wrote I’ll give a quick overview of the paradox of thrift – increases in personal savings can have an adverse effect on the economy causing a net decrease in actual savings overall.

The first assumption made by Krugman is that savings come in the form of currency with an assigned value but with no real intrinsic value – paper money. If savings come in the form of debt reduction or in acquiring real goods for future use then a bad economy increases the value of the savings rather than decreasing that value.

The second assumption made by Krugman is that government should be a significant force and substantial contributor to the economy. This is a man who argued that the government was doing the wrong thing and not enough of it when Obama got his stimulus bill passed (ARRA). While I often disagree with his assumptions I absolutely trust Krugman to be able to read the numbers and do his math so I won’t attempt to do my own numbers. I will link to the source of his numbers and then play with his graph to show how things look under new assumptions.

Categories
National

A Managed Economy


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I try not to focus on political or economic issues on Sunday, but I had a hard time when I noticed the figure "$700 Billion" yesterday. I was particularly worried by this statement:

. . . it would allow Treasury to act unilaterally: Its decisions could not be reviewed by any court or administrative body and, once the emergency legislation was approved, the administration could raise the $700 billion through government borrowing and would not be subject to Congress’ traditional power of the purse. . .

”It essentially creates an economic czar with no administrative oversight, no legal review, no legislative review. And it gives one man $700 billion to disperse as he needs fit,” said Sen. Dianne Feinstein, D-Calif., referring to Treasury Secretary Henry M. Paulson Jr.

”He will have complete, unbridled authority subject to no law,” she said.

In an administration that is already known for stretching its authority I have long had some fear of the consequences of the War on Terror. After this I am equally worried about the consequences of the War on Economic Uncertainty if this measure passes as submitted.

Thankfully the Democratic congress is pushing back on some aspects of the plan such as the lack of oversight.

Democrats want the measure to include independent oversight, homeowner protections and limits on executive compensation, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., said in a statement early Sunday evening.

"We will not simply hand over a $700 billion blank check to Wall Street and hope for a better outcome," she said.

While I historically agree with the Republican party more often than the Democratic party on economic issues, I very much side with the Democrats on this one (if I’m forced to choose one of those two positions). We must have a healthy system of checks and balances between branches of the government. Regardless of the checks that may be imposed by Congress, anyone who still argues that we have a free market is either lying or ignorant.

I saw much more encouraging news this morning:

Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley, the last two independent investment banks on Wall Street, will transform themselves into bank holding companies subject to far greater regulation, the Federal Reserve said Sunday night.

The firms requested the change themselves . . .

(emphasis added)

This is how a free market is supposed to work. The individual companies recognize their precarious position and make changes themselves. Only the threat of failure will cause them to do this. Having the safety-net of a bailout available only encourages more risky practices. What is really interesting to me about this move is that it essentially reverses a "protective measure" that was passed in the Great Depression. Apparently that intervention in the market helped to facilitate our latest economic shock.

By the way, the plan includes a provision to raise the debt limit from $10.6 Trillion to $11.3 Trillion. What good is it to have a limit if those who are "limited" are allowed to move the goalposts at will?

Categories
culture National

American Debt is No Accident


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The fact that Americans have allowed themselves to be led down the rosy path of false economic hopes for a rosy tomorrow – where we can borrow now for anything we want with no thought for the fact that we are paying more by mortgaging our futures all the time – is not surprising. What caught my attention are the actual statistics of this fiscal malpractice and the stark proof that our financial institutions are trying to profit by keeping us individually on the brink of financial ruin.

Since the early 1980s, the value of home equity loans outstanding has ballooned to more than $1 trillion from $1 billion . . .

However, what has been a highly lucrative business for banks has become a disaster for many borrowers, who are falling behind on their payments at near record levels and could lose their homes.

The portion of people who have home equity lines more than 30 days past due stands 55 percent above its average since the American Bankers Association began tracking it around 1990; delinquencies on home equity loans are 45 percent higher. Hundreds of thousands are delinquent . . .

None of this would have been possible without a conscious effort by lenders, who have spent billions of dollars in advertising to change the language of home loans and with it Americans’ attitudes toward debt.

Aside from the precise numbers listed above, none of that information should surprise anyone with their eyes open to the economic situation of the country.

It might seem hard to believe, but not long ago people borrowed money to buy a home with the expectation that they would eventually pay off the debt. A mortgage had a finish line. . .

The newly mortgage-free even used to throw mortgage-burning parties to celebrate their financial freedom. . .

Now the idea of paying off the mortgage and owning a home outright is disappearing. . . banks now enable homeowners to keep borrowing. In fact, they encourage it. . .

As a result, the United States has become a nation of half-home owners. For the first time since World War II, the portion of home value that Americans own has fallen to less than 50 percent. In the 1980s, that figure was 70 percent. (emphasis added)

Let me translate that – we now own less of our own homes as a nation than we did 20 years ago. We have sold majority interest in the most valuable piece of property we have to our bankers for the sake of extra stuff which, while often nice to have, does not provide any of life’s necessities (shelter being a necessity while wave-runners, trampolines, nice furniture, and timeshares are not).

If the majority of our citizenry acts that way with their own money, it should not be surprising that our government does the same with public funds. (In the last 40 years, the only time our deficit spending has even tapered off was from 1998 to 2000.) Our public financial blinders have brought us to the attention of Nouriel Roubini:

After analyzing the markets that collapsed in the ’90s, Roubini set out to determine which country’s economy would be the next to succumb to the same pressures. His surprising answer: the United States’. “The United States,” Roubini remembers thinking, “looked like the biggest emerging market of all.” Of course, the United States wasn’t an emerging market; it was (and still is) the largest economy in the world. But Roubini was unnerved by what he saw in the U.S. economy, in particular its 2004 current-account deficit of $600 billion. He began writing extensively about the dangers of that deficit and then branched out, researching the various effects of the credit boom — including the biggest housing bubble in the nation’s history — that began after the Federal Reserve cut rates to close to zero in 2003. Roubini became convinced that the housing bubble was going to pop.

By late 2004 he had started to write about a “nightmare hard landing scenario for the United States.”

Anyone who is uncomfortable with the fallout of private homeowners beginning to default on their mortgages is going to be aghast at the results of the government declaring bankruptcy – and unless we change our thinking we’re going to have to declare bankruptcy – already we are faced with a debt that we are going to hate paying off. If we kept paying our current taxes and the government did nothing but pay debt at 0% interest it would take four years to pay it off and if we kept paying our mandatory spending programs it would take 10 years.

It’s about time our nation put both our public and our private financial houses in order.

Categories
General

Federalist No. 7


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My first reaction to Federalist No. 7 was that it was applicable to the nation at the time it was written, but had little insights to offer us at present. Later it occurred to me that the issues being addressed would be applicable at any time we might consider the possibility of dissolving the nation into smaller sovereign entities. For example, the problem of how to discharge the national debt should be daunting enough to convince the majority of our citizens and states to preserve the union at any cost.